Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 6.455997 7.657889 8.982611 10.545738 12.334163 14.310760 16.654707
2025-02-16 4.331190 5.860710 7.734233 10.173167 13.236749 16.928123 21.679614
2025-02-23 3.018301 4.600378 6.728132 9.741340 13.831410 19.115147 26.368990
2025-03-02 2.156827 3.670486 5.886670 9.267328 14.172376 20.890273 30.614392
2025-03-09 1.666668 3.132295 5.445537 9.207865 14.981922 23.280880 35.820786
2025-03-16 1.288981 2.665848 4.999432 9.027214 15.532028 25.292626 40.608890
2025-03-23 1.117632 2.506147 5.003088 9.526724 17.136869 28.950693 48.042861
2025-03-30 0.927817 2.260823 4.806175 9.645169 18.118051 31.710405 54.304418
2025-04-06 0.765459 2.026048 4.578967 9.662913 18.908980 34.205351 60.305133
2025-04-13 0.631067 1.813645 4.350737 9.634253 19.595908 36.559281 66.215585
2025-04-20 0.587430 1.798585 4.513228 10.358759 21.677418 41.363331 76.391921
2025-04-27 0.519576 1.705740 4.494008 10.717598 23.113938 45.159542 85.117661
2025-05-04 0.459374 1.620755 4.486529 11.118303 24.704409 49.401971 94.983164
2025-05-11 0.381125 1.462462 4.283661 11.084595 25.462434 52.242737 102.660614
2025-05-18 0.301610 1.271600 3.962658 10.743852 25.570963 53.909426 108.388874
2025-05-25 0.232576 1.085253 3.609673 10.270881 25.347411 54.926626 113.002314
2025-06-01 0.192297 0.980701 3.448978 10.220931 25.996769 57.625596 120.809968
2025-06-08 0.154947 0.869745 3.244075 10.028711 26.311472 59.687511 127.545124
2025-06-15 0.143247 0.858010 3.327799 10.576658 28.314117 65.196443 141.035942
2025-06-22 0.122977 0.799677 3.255898 10.706784 29.375781 68.876240 151.217696
2025-06-29 0.103543 0.735075 3.148980 10.726419 30.180271 72.078080 160.637299
2025-07-06 0.086343 0.671657 3.030440 10.695186 30.857973 75.054293 169.761016
2025-07-13 0.084155 0.688307 3.193647 11.486586 33.585754 82.479490 188.010568